글로벌 에너지 동향

2022년 경기 침체 이후 중국 경제 반등에 발생한 영향은 무엇일까요? 2023년 이후 우크라이나 전쟁은 글로벌 시장에 어떤 영향을 미쳤을까요?

COP28 목표를 향한 진전: 재생에너지가 충분한 속도로 확장되고 있으며 효율성이 필요한 속도로 향상되고 있을까요? 장기 과제: 2030년까지 정말로 재생에너지 용량을 3배 늘리고 에너지 효율성을 2배 늘릴 수 있을까요? 비용은 얼마나 들까요?

G20 국가의 주요 에너지 및 기후 수치의 2022년과 2023년 비교

G20 국가는 전 세계 에너지 소비의 80%를 차지합니다

주요 내용:

• 2023년에는 경제 성장이 2010~2019년 평균 추세로 돌아왔지만, 에너지 소비는 이러한 역사적 추세보다 더 빠르게 증가했습니다. G20은 경제 성장에서 에너지 소비를 분리하는 데 실패했으며 2°C 경로에 맞는 에너지 집약도 감소도 충분하지 않습니다. 이러한 추세는 GDP, 경제 구조, 에너지 구성 변화에 따라 국가마다 다릅니다.
• 풍력과 태양광 발전의 증가에도 불구하고 에너지 및 전력 구성에서 재생에너지가 차지하는 비중은 약간 증가하는 수준에 그쳐 결과적으로 CO₂ 배출량이 1.7% 증가했습니다. 탄소 계수의 감소 속도는 2°C 목표를 달성하기에 여전히 불충분합니다.

G20 국가의 탄소 요인 변화

출처: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO₂ Data

에너지 소비는 2010~2019년 기간에 비해 더 빠른 속도로 증가했으며 OECD 회원국과 OECD 비회원국 간에 상당한 차이가 관찰되었습니다. 운송 부문의 회복과 더불어 중국, 인도 등 OECD 비회원국에 힘입어 석탄과 석유 소비가 계속 증가했기 때문에 G20 에너지 구성에서 화석 연료의 비율은 변함없이 유지되었습니다. CO₂ 배출량이 적은 천연가스 소비는 여전히 높은 가격으로 인해 소폭 증가에 그쳤습니다. 

G20 국가의 석유 소비 동향(%/연)

출처: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO₂ Data

재생에너지 발전이 탄력을 받고 있습니다. 2022년에 전 세계가 그랬던 것처럼 많은 재생에너지 용량을 설치한 중국 덕분에 2023년 신규 재생에너지 설비는 사상 최고 수준에 도달했습니다. 전반적으로 풍력과 태양광 발전이 빠르게 증가하여(각각 +10%, +25%) G20 전력 구성의 15%에 도달했습니다.

중국, 재생에너지 전력 용량 개발의 선두주자

출처: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO₂ Data

주요 내용:

• COP28에서 제시한 2030년 기후 목표는 EnerGreen이 설명한 것처럼 지구 온도 상승을 2°C 미만으로 유지하려는 파리 협정의 목표와 일치합니다.
• 그러나 국가 결정 기여금(NDC)은 2030년 기후 목표 달성에 충분하지 않습니다.
• 재생에너지와 에너지 효율성은 EnerGreen의 글로벌 기후 야망에 기여하는 유일한 수단이 아니며, 전동화와 충분성의 역할을 과소평가해서는안 됩니다. 충분성은 성숙도가 불확실한 신기술에 대한 의존도를 제한하는 데에도 도움이 됩니다.

글로벌 재생에너지 전력 용량

출처: Enerdata, EnerFuture

Key Takeaways:

The recent decrease in emissions within the EU is largely attributable to moderate economic and demographic growth. This trend is underscored by a decline in European industrial activity, particularly pronounced since 2022. Notably, increasing populations and better access to energy are not drivers to energy consumption, which contrasts with emerging economies. 

While low-emission and energy-efficient technologies are emerging, their adoption rate remains insufficient; significant decarbonisation of power generation has occurred, but its overall impact is limited without broader electrification of end-uses. Electric vehicles and heat pumps, despite their potential, remain niche technologies and are beginning to show signs of slowing adoption. 

Furthermore, some positive behavioural shifts are observed, such as energy sufficiency in households, primarily as a response to high energy prices, and passenger traffic remains lower than its pre-COVID levels.

Emission drivers in power generation* in the EU

 Source: Odyssee, Enerdata

Industrial activity in the EU has declined by 5% since 2022. This trend is particularly pronounced in energy-intensive industries, which experienced a 7% reduction when accounting for the energy consumption of different branches. This decrease in activity largely explains the reduction in both energy consumption and CO₂ emissions within the industrial sector. Additionally, overall electricity consumption has decreased since 2015, and electricity has only gained a marginal share in total energy consumption.

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